Why this one equation decides everything
Many hunt for the "best strategy" while the more important question is mathematical: what share of trades must you win merely to avoid losing? The answer depends on only three numbers — your target, your stop, and the cost per trade:
Break-even win rate = (stop + cost) ÷ (target + stop)
Cost enters once per trade, so the smaller the target the larger its share of it. The table shows the effect with a stop equal to the target and a 1.5-pip cost:
| Target / stop | Break-even rate | Without cost |
|---|---|---|
| 5 / 5 pips | 65.0% | 50.0% |
| 20 / 20 pips | 53.8% | 50.0% |
| 100 / 100 pips | 50.8% | 50.0% |
Note the "without cost" column: it is 50% in all three cases. So the entire difference between 50% and 65% is pure trading cost, not difficulty in reading the market. That is what makes pair, broker and timing choices strategic rather than administrative — details in spread cost and scalping arithmetic.
Expectancy: the number that settles the long run
The break-even rate tells you the minimum; expectancy tells you what you actually gain or lose on average per trade:
Expectancy = (win rate × net win) − (loss rate × net loss)
Its real value is settling a common argument: win rate alone means nothing. A strategy winning 40% of trades with a target twice its stop can outperform one winning 70% with a target half its stop. When expectancy is positive the method profits across a large sample despite the losing streaks that will certainly occur; when negative it loses however successful any single trade appears.
This is why a strategy is judged after at least thirty trades rather than one or two — and why a short losing streak does not indicate failure. See the testing method in choosing and testing a strategy, and risk limits in forex risk management.
Once a method is mathematically viable, the harder problem remains: executing it with the same consistency every time. This is where ZeinBot helps, applying the rules on your own MT5 account without execution drifting through fatigue or emotion after a losing streak.