The shape reveals what the number hides
Two systems both ended at 20% profit: one climbed steadily, the other spiked to 60% and gave it back to 20%. Same final number, entirely different story — and the second lived through a 25% drawdown that would have stopped most traders before the end.
Three patterns the shape exposes and no single figure does: one jump carrying the whole result, which indicates luck rather than a system; gradual decay after a good period, suggesting market conditions changed; and sudden acceleration, which usually means size increased rather than edge improved — the most dangerous pattern because it looks like success. See drawdown.
One record, several views
The reference record shared with the other performance pages: 100 trades, 40 winners averaging +2R and 60 losers averaging −1R, for an expectancy of +0.20R per trade.
Each measure here reads that same record from a different angle: one weighs return against variability, the other shows the path that produced the result. One outcome, several views — which is why they are read together rather than as substitutes.
A worked example
The reference record — 100 trades at +0.20R expectancy — totals +20R. But the curve is not a straight line: where the win rate is 40%, ordinary losing streaks occur along the way.
So the account normally passes through drawdowns of 4R to 6R before arriving. At 1% risk on $1,000 those are $40 to $60 — 4% to 6% of the account. Knowing this before going live is the difference between a trader who continues the plan and one who changes it at the worst point, believing the system broke.
Common mistakes with this term
- Reading only the final point, when the path is what decides whether you can stay with it.
- Reading sudden acceleration as improved performance, when it usually reflects increased size.